IF YOU aren’t on the property ladder by 35 then you could be paying off your mortage with your superannuation, a property expert has warned.
The stark statement comes as figures show the wealth gap between generations is widening with home ownership among young Australians falling to the lowest level on record.
Startling Grattan Institute statistics show wealthy people aged 55-64 are the only group which has seen its home ownership rates increase over 30 years.
The biggest falls in ownership have been suffered by the young people aged 25-34, who saw their home ownership rate drop by more than 30 per cent from 1981 until 2011. Only 45 per cent of them own their own homes.
This is down 16 per cent from the 1980s, with almost half the decline coming in the past decade.
And, if the government doesn’t do something to help younger people own homes, there will be “stark differences” between the “haves and have-nots” in the near future, warns a leading housing policy expert.
The alarming findings come after Sydney held its title as the second-costliest housing market in the world, in this year’s Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey.
Research by Finder.com.au shows that even Sydney’s ‘bargain’ suburbs that were $500,000 or cheaper in 2012 have nearly doubled in value in the past five years.
While Melbourne, ranked the world’s most liveable city the past seven years by the Economist Intelligence Unit, is now the planet’s sixth-most expensive place to buy a house.
Brendan Coates, a housing policy expert at the Grattan Institute, said the issue of young people being locked out of the property ladder is one which will take at least two decades to fix.
“Reforming negative gearing and capital gains tax, which have added fuel to the fire, would be a good start but it would only lower prices by about two per cent.
“It’s not about how many homes we build this year or next year. We would need to see at least a decade of sustained home building to make a big difference.
“If Australians are not on the property ladder by the time they are 35, then it is unlikely that they will own their home outright,” he said.
“This means that more and more people will start to use their superannuation to pay off their debts. This is worrying because, over time, the differences between the haves and have-nots will be stark.”
He added soaring property prices are a major factor behind the rapidly growing wealth of older Australians.
“Households headed by 65-74-year-olds were on average $500,000 wealthier in 2015-16 than households in the same age group 12 years ago,” he added.
According to the ABS, house prices grew by 37 per cent on average across all the capital cities between 2003-04 and 2015-16 and by more than 50 per cent in Melbourne alone.
However, Paul Dales, chief Australian economist at Capital Economics said the age gap in home ownership is not all bad news for the Aussie economy.
“There are a lot of social issues which come out of young people not being able to afford their own homes, but for the economy – there’s not one clear answer to say whether it’s good or bad.
“One one hand, young people are spending so much of their income on mortgage repayments or on rent that they have far less money on other things.
“More money going on servicing a mortgage means there is less to spend elsewhere, dragging on economic growth.
“But, there are some offsets to this. The older homeowners have seen their family homes have soared in value and, as a result, they have more wealth to spend on other things.
“We also see a lot of young people living with their parents so they can save for a deposit for a home, and they are put off by renting because it is so expensive.
“This means their income is not being swallowed up by rent, so this can also have a positive effect on the economy.”
Some of the falls in home ownership are also partly the result of social changes Australians are waiting until later in
life before starting work, forming long-term partnerships, and having children, Mr Coates said.
“But most Australians still want to own a home, so it is reasonable to conclude that higher property prices are the biggest cause of lower ownership rates,” he said.
A Grattan spokesman said the only way young people can afford to buy a house is with help from “the bank of mum and dad”.
“Inheritances tend to transmit wealth to children who are already well-off, and home ownership is more likely among those who receive an inheritance, and more likely still among those who receive larger inheritances,” he said.
“Australia is becoming wealthier, but much of the increase is concentrated in the hands of older generations. The trend is unmistakeable: unless something changes, the young will fall further behind and inequality will get worse.”
Originally Published: brisbaneinvestor.com.au
How good an investment is south-east Queensland
Why do we believe we’ll see increasing investor interest in this market? Strong population growth, a diversified and growing economy, and substantial investment in infrastructure should combine to boost demand.
We expect that these factors will swell the number of white-collar jobs – increasing demand for office space, which in turn will push down vacancy rates and raise rental incomes. This should be good news for office property investors – especially those like Centuria Metropolitan REIT (CMA) that are already well-positioned in the market.
A significant and growing population
South East Queensland (SEQ) stretches from the Gold Coast up to the Sunshine Coast and across to Toowoomba in the west. As Australia’s third-largest population zone, the region has been growing significantly, particularly Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Interstate migration figures show a pattern of steady net migration, with Queensland the only Australian state with consistent net inflows of people from other states. In the five years prior to the 2016 Census, over 220,000 people moved to the Sunshine State – mainly to SEQ where nearly 90% of population growth occurred. This is important for property investors because of its implications for demand, but the trend is interconnected with other favourable factors.
A diversified economy poised for growth
Queensland’s economy is diversified across a range of industries including agriculture, resources, construction, tourism, manufacturing, and services. Over the past two decades, its economic growth has consistently exceeded the national average – and in our view this is likely to continue.
The resources sector is gaining momentum, and a significant pipeline of major infrastructure and development projects is helping propel economic and jobs growth, in turn increasing interstate migration and driving demand for both residential and commercial property.
Investment in infrastructure
A strong infrastructure program delivers more than business and consumer amenity – it generates jobs, drives investment, and facilitates population growth. The pipeline of infrastructure and development projects announced in the past few years is likely to have a material impact on the region – substantially improving its accessibility and amenity – most notably, Brisbane’s Queen’s Wharf precinct and the Cross River Rail.
Queen’s Wharf, touted as a “world-class entertainment precinct”, is an integrated resort development costing $3.6 billion and covering over 26 hectares with retail, dining, hotel and entertainment spaces. As Queensland’s biggest ever tourism project it will be a game-changer for Brisbane, attracting overseas as well as local visitors. Estimated to contribute $1.69 billion annually to the economy, it will employ more than 2,000 people during construction and an estimated 10,000 once operational.
The Queensland Government’s number one infrastructure project, the $5.4 billion Cross River Rail, comprises a new 10.2km rail line between Dutton Park and Bowen Hills, which includes a 5.9km tunnel under the Brisbane River and CBD. It’s the first major rail infrastructure investment in the inner city since 1986 and is set to generate urban renewal, economic development and the revitalisation of inner-city precincts.
Outlook for commercial office property investment
These factors indicate a region poised for growth – and for growing commercial property demand. CMA’s portfolio has a significant exposure to the area in general (six SEQ assets with a combined book value of over $480 million), with many of the individual assets located in those parts of Brisbane set to benefit most from these developments.
Our view is that Brisbane office markets, where five of CMA’s assets sit, are continuing to improve, with vacancies hitting a five-year low – indicating increasing tenant demand – and continued yield compression, demonstrating strong investment demand. Office sales hit the highest level in a decade during 2018 (at $2.35 billion), increasing 60% from 2017.
With the strong outlook for SEQ, we expect the region will continue to attract tenants and investors alike.
Queensland’s 100,000-property public housing shortfall revealed
Queensland has a severe shortage of social and affordable housing, an issue that is projected to get worse by 2036 according to new research.
More than 102,000 additional social houses are currently needed across the state, and 54,700 affordable houses are also needed with nearly 13 per cent of Queenslanders spending more than 30 per cent of their income on rent.
By 2036, Queensland is projected to need 254,300 more social and affordable houses – the second-highest unmet need behind NSW, the report found.
The new figures come from a UNSW City Futures Research Centre report on social housing shortfall across Australia.
Regional social housing shortfalls are higher than in Brisbane, the data shows, but Brisbane residents are slightly more likely to be spending more of their income on rent.
Housing Minister Mick de Brenni said housing affordability was a “big issue” for Queensland.
“Through the Palaszczuk government’s $1.8 billion Queensland Housing Strategy, Labor is driving key reforms and targeted investment across the housing continuum,” he said.
“The Strategy commits us to build more than 1000 affordable homes for Queenslanders, as well as a further 4522 new social homes to help ensure everyone has a safe, secure and stable place to live.”
Lead researcher Laurence Troy said 22.5 per cent of Australia’s entire housing growth must go to social housing to meet demand into the future.
“Our analysis shows that the sheer number of households in rental stress across the country means that if we’re going to meet the need, at least 12 per cent of all our housing by 2036 will need to be social and affordable housing – which is a very reasonable ambition in global terms,” Mr Troy said.
“To cover the backlog of unmet need and future need in Australia two in 10 new homes will need to be for social housing over the next 20 years, and a further one in ten for below-market affordable rental housing.”
Mr Troy said the research’s financial modelling found the “best and cheapest way” for governments to meet the need for social housing was to fund it through upfront grants and low-interest government financing.
“Delivering below market rental housing through the not-for-profit sector, as opposed to the private equity model, will save $3 billion a year by removing developer mark-ups and shareholder returns,” he said.
The financial modelling was commissioned by the NSW community housing sector.
Mr de Brenni said the state government was “listening” through its recent public consultation on rental reform and was committed to investing in affordable housing in partnership with community housing, to provide more subsidied homes for low income earners.
“We heard Queenslanders are struggling to afford rental properties in the suburbs close to where they work,” he said.
“Through our Build-to-Rent pilot project, we are seeking to work with the private sector to increase the number of long-term, affordable rental properties for low to moderate income earners, including key workers in health, early childhood and hospitality.
“Internationally, the Build-to-Rent model is delivering fantastic outcomes and facilities for tenants and we’re looking to see what the market is open to delivering here.
“The pilot, if it proceeds, will see $70 million invested towards delivery of hundreds of affordable rental properties for key workers in inner-city areas where affordability has been identified.”
Mr de Brenni said the registrations of interest for that pilot had seen strong market interest, and the department was considering the responses before calling for expressions of interest.
Moreton Bay region emerges as top performer in Brisbane market
While Brisbane has yet to see the property boom previously experienced by Sydney and Melbourne, experts said that some suburbs have been performing spectacularly. Find out how investors can capitalise on the Brisbane property market this 2019.
As the property markets of Sydney and Melbourne continue to decline, the stability in Brisbane comes as a welcome change for investors. investors start to flock into Brisbane hoping that the Queensland capital will follow in the footsteps of the two major markets.
Is it really a good time to buy properties in Brisbane right now?
According to Brisbane-based buyer’s agent Melinda Jennison, it depends largely on what the investor wants to buy.
The apartment and unit markets are generally thriving, with some softening expected through the year.
For example, in the apartment market, we are still seeing some of the oversupply being absorbed, which is good news moving forward. We do have a steady increase in population growth which is driven by both overseas migration and interstate migration, so we certainly haven’t seen the slump that was predicted.”
“However, we see some softening continuing in the unit market, perhaps for the next six to 12 months, and then we’ll see that steady out and increase into the future. Even the large research groups such as ABS have predicted slumps for 2019 but improvements in the years that follow.”
On the other hand, the house-and-land market has been fairly flat, with a few good performers across regions.
“In the single house and land market, we certainly don’t see the same. It’s been fairly flat across Brisbane if you’re looking at median values, but there’s certainly been pockets within Brisbane that are outperforming. The latest CoreLogic data in January actually showed Brisbane had four of the top 10 sub-regions.”
“These are markets with properties worth sub-$500,000, so it’s showing good promise,” Ms Jennison highlighted.
Opportunities in Moreton Bay
One of these top-performing regions in Brisbane is Moreton Bay, particularly the northern and southern sides, according to the buyer’s agent.
In fact, Moreton Bay has been deemed as one of the highest-growing shires across Australia, spurred largely by the high level of infrastructure spending across the area.
“There’s a new university being built at Petrie, for example. It’s a priority development area that’s been declared by the state government, and there’s a lot more infrastructure going in,” according to the buyer’s agent.
“A lot of the land has also recently been rezoned for higher density development. Further, there’s obviously different exit strategies that the investor can implement, particularly if they’re buying a site that has potential for future development.”
As South East Queensland benefit from the increasing level of interstate migration and population growth, Moreton Bay has secured a strong housing demand despite the increasing values of property across the region.
The new campus of the University of Sunshine Coast in Moreton is expected to improve the housing market conditions across The Mill at Moreton Bay, the new destination with the University at its core, and, ultimately, the entire Moreton Bay region.
Stage 1 of the campus, which be located adjacent to the Petrie railway station, is set to be completed in time for the first semester of 2020.
Ms Jennison said: “A lot of the area (The Mill at Moreton Bay) is actually flood-impacted land, so I guess it wasn’t ever earmarked for development, but the way they’ve developed the university around the non-flood impacted parts of the site, there’s a lot of ecological land that has been saved because it’s the squalor habitats that was associated with the sites.”
“With clever design, they’ve been able to design the University between Galangal and Petrie, and I think there’s going to be an exit from Dohles Rocks Road in Galangal—it flows through that whole area.”
At the end of the day, identifying a good investment area comes down to supply and demand, population and jobs growth as well good infrastructure, according to the buyer’s agent.
“In property investment, it comes down to supply and demand, but on top of that, it also comes down to having locations where people can secure good jobs, high-paying jobs.”
“We feel that Moreton Bay will gentrify quite quickly with young university students moving in, so we’ll see the types of accommodation gradually change over time to suit their preferences. There’s lots of opportunities within the area and the region as a whole because of this gentrification,” Ms Jennison highlighted.
Apart from noting the level of supply and demand as well as the existing and upcoming infrastructure, the buyer’s agent also encouraged investors to research any possible rezoning around the area as the zoning of land can significantly affect the investability of their properties.
In Moreton Bay, for instance, a lot of land throughout the major transport corridors have been rezoned around three years ago, meaning, the local council decided that the land be put to a different use.
“Where there existed single homes on single blocks of land, council rezoned that land for a higher and better use. It allows that land to be used for something more than just a single dwelling. It might just be a house at the moment, but in the future, it may be able to carry the capacity for 10 homes or units,” Ms Jennison explained.
Local councils often rezone land to help them plan for future growth, thus, rezoning usually happens around growth corridors or areas where the population and infrastructure spending has been rapidly increasing.
“Rezoning land allows developers to move in and build sufficient housing to accommodate the new demand that’s coming into the market.”
Whether the investor buys a property prior to rezoning to enjoy yield and some capital growth or they buy a block of land for multiple units after the rezoning for long-term growth as well as their exit strategies will be largely dependent on the investor’s personal goals, timelines and financial capabilities, according to Ms Jennison.
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