Now that should be the title of this missive. But we just don’t want to believe it. Most of the rest of the world does. But still we don’t see it.
The weekend papers ran headlines like: “Forget talk of gloom, this is all boom” & “We’re doing so well yet we keep whingeing”. At dinner on Saturday night a mate summed up our current malaise in a nutshell: “We worry more about the Greek economy than the Greeks do.”
The Herald-Lateral Economics Well-Being Index (which measures both individual economic circumstances & happiness) shows that we should be doing very well. Our well-being is up 5% on last year. But still we whinge.
Well, there shouldn’t really be much to whinge about when it comes to residential property, especially in my neck of the woods, being Queensland & in particular the south-east corner of the state. But still, there are many Doubting Thomases.
On a broad scale – interest rates are low & still falling; gross rental yields are now often in positive territory; the sharemarket is improving & we have plenty of money saved – in term deposits; in our superfunds or in advanced payments on the mortgage. The past shows us that it usually goes – cash first; shares second & property third. The experienced keep telling me you make your cash-flow by trading shares & real money in buying & holding property. You make your money in property when you buy, not when you sell.
In addition, this time around we have self-managed super funds, which hold over $1.5 trillion dollars in assets. Yet these funds have little exposure to property, though they can borrow (with strict rules) to buy property assets. This segment will be a big part of the residential investment scene over the next five years. They will add considerable momentum to this residential recovery.
Now for mine, it is a great time to buy in Queensland & especially in Brisbane. And there are ten reasons why:
1. Queensland’s population growth increased by 75,000 last year – up 50% or 25,000 on 2010’s 50,000 annual increase. History shows that Queensland attracts a third of Australia’s annual population growth.
2. According to the ABS employment figures, 30,000 new jobs have been created in Queensland since late last year & more than half of these were in Brisbane.
3. Based on last year’s statistics, Queensland looks to be heading towards a massive undersupply, with 33,000 new dwellings needed during 2012, yet just 26,000 supplied – an undersupply to the tune of about 20%. The inner Brisbane apartment market is also undersupplied & in this case by as much as 40%. There is a need to build 2,650 new apartments across inner Brisbane every year, but just 1,600 new properties have been delivered (each year) since 2006.
4. The Brisbane vacancy rate is currently 1.9% & whilst rental growth has slowed down, median rents still rose across much of the state last year. Importantly, rental properties are showing good rental returns, averaging 5.5% gross.
5. Economic forecasters, BIS Shrapnel, predict that Brisbane’s dwelling values should start to grow in earnest during 2013, accelerating in 2014 as the economic upturn gains momentum & the underlying dwelling deficiency becomes more pronounced.
6. Official statistics show that new property prices across Brisbane have already risen by 4.9% during 2012, which is strong against the national average increase of just 1.4%.
7. There has been a 6% drop in the number of properties listed for sale across Brisbane during 2012. Resale supply is starting to tighten.
8. In addition, there has been a 10% increase in the number of settled sales across the south-east corner of Queensland over the last twelve months. Overall properties are now selling faster than new ones are being listed.
9. Whilst Brisbane isn’t an auction city, but when comparing Brisbane auction results so far this year, against those from early 2012, there has been a 56% increase in the number of properties sold at auction. There are increasingly bigger crowds at auctions & better results on the day.
10. Finally, Brisbane is now quite affordable, being the third most affordable major urban place in Australia. And this is one reason why Queensland’s population growth is increasing again.
It is a somewhat closed circuit – a Queensland & even Australia-wide residential recovery – it starts with improved liquidity; improving profits (& a better share market); competitive (often real) returns; higher household formation & scarcity – perceived or otherwise. Human nature slows & stops the cycle – being overly cautious now & in due course greedy. Confidence is the key. It is missing now.
OZ, The Great & Powerful. Yes, but only if you believe! Now that would make a great title for a movie, don’t you think?
Article originally published in Matusikmissive.com.au 12/3/2013
Gold Coast house values record the biggest growth in Queensland
The Gold Coast has recorded the strongest growth in house prices in Queensland over the past 12 months.
GOLD Coast house prices are leading the way in Queensland, up six per cent in the past 12 months to an average $620,000.
The latest figures by the Real Estate Institute of Queensland show homes on the Glitter Strip are $35,000 more on the same time last year.
Unit prices are up 1.9 per cent to $428,000.
REIQ data reveals houses on the Glitter Strip are worth $35,000 on the same time last year.
REIQ’s Queensland Market Monitor for March said the strong population growth came on the back of infrastructure projects such as the $550 million Gold Coast Health and Knowledge Precinct and M1 upgrades.
“The property market has been one of the big winners from the sporting event as the $1.5 billion infrastructure investment has boosted confidence and demand for housing in the region,” the report stated.
“We expect house prices will show an upward path in 2018. However, this growth will most likely be more moderate.”
A quiet real estate period leading up to, and during, the Commonwealth Games likely contributed to a slight drop (-0.3 per cent) in the March quarterly median sales price, the report reveals.
Andrew Henderson says a growing population and employment opportunities were contributing to a strong property market. Picture: Jerad Williams
REIQ Gold Coast zone chairman Andrew Henderson said he expected interstate migration to continue to benefit the city.
“I expect the market to remain strong,” he said.
“There is a heavy amount of interstate buyers moving here.
“I was at an auction recently where the winning bidder was from Sydney and the underbidder was from Melbourne.”
Mr Henderson said growing employment opportunities were also attracting homebuyers to the city.
The Gold Coast property market is expected to remain strong.
“We have some of the best health facilities in the country and our universities are world recognised.
“Those two things alone complement the tourism industry and the lifestyle aspects that the Coast offers.”
The report found the fastest-selling suburbs on the Coast included Worongary, Merrimac, Highland Park, Mudgeeraba and Carrara.
It also revealed the rental vacancy held tight throughout the first quarter of the year at 1.1 per cent.
Andrew Bell says the Coast had evolved from a tourist town into a vibrant city with an expanding economy. Picture Mike Batterham
Ray White Surfers Paradise Group CEO Andrew Bell said the Games heralded the next chapter for the Coast, as it evolved from a tourist town into a vibrant city with an expanding economy.
“The city’s property market is riding the irreversible momentum that has now come to the Gold Coast in terms of economic diversity and with more employment options we will need more housing options for people,” Mr Bell said.
“We are no longer going to be subject to tourism upsides and downsides as we were in the past because our economy has well and truly diversified beyond just tourism.”
Australia’s golden triangle of opportunity
It was great to be back on the Gold Coast for the 21st annual Australasian Real Estate Conference (AREC), attended by over 4,000 of Australia’s best industry professionals. While I was there I was once again reminded of how much potential the South-East Queensland property market is offering both sea changers and investors at this stage in its market cycle.
In my view, Brisbane is the best market in Australia currently for short to medium term price growth, with the value gap between it and the other big East Coast capitals as large as I’ve seen it in many years.
When you factor in the key drivers for future growth – liveability, affordability, scale and future economic prospects, they all suggest that Brisbane is a market to invest in. Check out the latest statistics from CoreLogic below.
Value gap – median house prices
Value gap – median apartment prices
I’ve been bullish on Brisbane for many years and in hindsight, I called its next growth phase a couple of years too early. It’s had some growth in recent years but there is a lot more to come over the next few years.
According to McGrath’s top prestige agent in Brisbane, Alex Jordan, one of the dominant trends today is downsizers buying up luxury apartments.
Alex says: “Despite the reported oversupply in Brisbane’s inner city apartment market, we are seeing great strength in the prestige apartment sector.
“The luxury apartment market ($1M+) is driven by owner occupiers, particularly baby boomers and empty nesters, who are attracted to less maintenance and better accessibility.
“Popular suburbs include New Farm, Newstead, Teneriffe, Kangaroo Point, South Brisbane, St Lucia, Paddington and the Brisbane CBD. These areas offer a desirable lifestyle with an abundance of shopping, dining and entertaining precincts at their doorstep.”
South East Queensland has so many options for asset-rich, cash-poor southerners. Many of our customers in Sydney and Melbourne are looking closely at South East Queensland both for investment and a potential sea change. I believe its affordability will continue to attract record levels of interstate migration.
If you live in Sydney or Melbourne and you’re struggling with the mortgage and cost of living, Brisbane is a fantastic alternative. It offers big city job opportunities, high quality education options and the chance to transform your financial future.
The boom delivered Sydney and Melbourne home owners a capital gain of up to 75% – that’s enormous new equity that could be cashed in to fund an amazing new lifestyle with far less mortgage stress up north. Plus, you’d be buying in just before Brisbane’s next wave of price growth. It’s the perfect scenario.
I believe the area from the Gold Coast to Toowoomba and up to the Sunshine Coast is Australia’s golden triangle right now.
Toowoomba, with its expanded airport facilities which have opened up easy access to the south, is the perfect and affordable treechange destination. Known as Queensland’s Garden City, about 2,300 people moved here from Brisbane last year for its cheaper house prices and enjoyable regional city lifestyle.
Both the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast are also appealing sea change options benefitting from a raft of new infrastructure that will drive further population growth and generate more local jobs.
Brisbane is one of the world’s great cities but I don’t think this is fully realised as yet. If you haven’t been to Brisbane for a number of years, get on a plane. This is a thriving city that offers many of the lifestyle amenities you love about the southern capitals but at a much cheaper price.
I think Brisbane will also become very attractive to migration and investment from Asia in the years ahead.
South East Queensland is offering opportunity everywhere for both owner occupiers and investors alike. Now’s the time to consider what Australia’s premier lifestyle market can do for you!
These are the top 3 spots to bag a bargain in Brisbane: Ryder
Property analyst Terry Ryder has picked three spots to invest in Brisbane. Picture: Richard Walker.Source:News Corp Australia
WANT to know where to invest in Brisbane that’s both affordable and offers the prospect of price growth? Look no further…
THERE are only three areas in Greater Brisbane that offer affordable real estate with growth potential, according to property analyst Terry Ryder.
The founder of Hotspotting.com.au has identified three precincts where there are plenty of houses well below the median Brisbane house price of around $530,000, close to transport links, shopping and jobs nodes, and with median rental yields in the 5 to 5.5 per cent range.
Here they are:
These suburbs are at the eastern fringe of the Ipswich local government area — the part closest to Brisbane, the motorway and the train line.
They are also close to the Springfield masterplanned community, which has an array of modern facilities, including university campus, hospital and commercial-retail precincts.
“There are numerous big shopping centres and major employment nodes nearby, with the recently announced $5 billion Defence vehicle contract focused on this precinct as a major new jobs creator,” Mr Ryder said.
2. Eagleby-Beenleigh-Woodridge, Logan
Mr Ryder said these older suburbs in Logan had median house prices in the $300,000s and were clustered around the train line and the Pacific Motorway, both of which link central Brisbane to the Gold Coast.
“This is also where there is an impressive shopping offering, including major bulky goods retail, and well-established infrastructure like schools and medical facilities (as well as a surprising number of golf courses).
3. Moreton Bay
The suburbs of Beachmere, Burpengary and Upper Caboolture have experienced double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past year, according to Mr Ryder.
They are all close to major road and rail links, but aren’t as expensive as North Lakes has become.
Even in the Redcliffe Peninsula, where most of the water-focused suburbs are, the median house price is only in the $400,000s.
And the Peninsula now has rail links to central Brisbane, making it an even more appealing prospect.
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