Our report card comments would be…“Trying hard; is tentative most of the time; much more focused since 24 March last year but is capable of a better result. Continuation of the current work ethic will help turn the B grade into an A. Removing all distractions would be a big help.”
Here are ten things about the Queensland economy.
- Qld economic growth is expected to fall to 2.8% during fiscal 2014, down from 3.3% during 2012/13. Picking up again in 2015, with an annualised expansion of 3.1%.
- According to Standard & Poor’s, Queensland currently has a AA+ credit rating.
- Good news is the projected turnaround in the Qld state budget, from a -$6,699 million deficit this year, to a $783 million surplus in 2013/14. By the middle of 2015, Qld could have $2,700 million in the state coffers. Fingers crossed.
- State fiscal consolidation is to keep unemployment relatively high, at about 6% for the next 18 to 24 months.
- Qld shares 20% of Australia’s economic growth. Household consumption makes up for half of the Qld economy, followed by the public sector (25%) & private business investment (21%).
- When it comes to industry type, services makes up for two-fifths (44%) of the Qld economy. Retail trade holds a 12% market share; followed by mining & construction with 10% each. By way of comparison, mining makes up 35% of the WA economy & accounts for 20% of the economy in NT.
- Another positive is population growth. Qld’s annual population growth is now over 91,000 per annum; almost double that of just two and a bit years ago.
- Capital expenditure is yet to peak – expected to take place this quarter – as the new LNG construction of recent years is taking some time to kick-in, economically speaking.
- The recent coal price rises are positive, but volumes traded are not expected to lift in coming years. Any ‘hole’ in this resource income is forecast to be filled by an increase in LNG exports from the mid-decade.
- New housing starts continue to slide sideways, but growth – albeit slow – is expected in the new housing construction over the next 12 months. More starts are expected in fiscal 2015 & 2016. Fingers crossed again.
My comments are as follows:
Queensland must return to a budget surplus & fast. It looks like this will be the case. Higher unemployment is the short-term fallout, but a higher credit rating will see even more business & construction investment in the state.
Whilst population growth is increasing, little is coming (yet) from interstate. Most is from natural increase (more babies compared to deaths – due largely to the baby bonus of recent years) & from overseas migration; many are from nations with large family households or from areas less fortunate than Australia. Hence they migrate. Sharing rental accommodation is the norm.
The end result is less new housing starts than at this stage of the cycle when compared to past upturns. It will take some time before Qld’s current population growth translates to new housing demand. It will happen, as migrant prosperity grows & as young families upgrade, but not for a few years yet.
Higher net interstate migration will also return to Qld, especially from NSW & especially from western Sydney. Available work in Queensland & low housing affordability in Sydney are the two main drivers.
They will start working, in tandem, in Qld’s favour in coming years. Interstate migrants – in the past anyway – equate to more new housing demand. A new interstate start often means a new house.
So this is good news. The B- grade should turn into an B+ to A- by this time next year. If things go to plan, Qld should get back its AAA rating within the next 24 months. For the third time this Missive…fingers crossed.
Article originally published Matusikmissive.com.au on 30/4/2013
Sydney Baby Boomers drive real estate boom in Brisbane
A MIGRATION of cashed-up Baby Boomers from Sydney will lead to a real estate boom in Brisbane, according to property investment experts.
A Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA) members’ survey revealed that Brisbane was regarded as the best capital city for property investment.
Of the members who participated in the survey, 46.15 per cent rated Brisbane as the best capital for investment prospects in 2018.
PIPA chairman Peter Koulizos said the Queensland capital was expected to boom as a side effect of the Sydney property boom happening when Baby Boomers were looking at retiring.
“People that have a lot of equity in their home can retire or semi-retire by selling up and buying a home in southeast Queensland,” Mr Koulizos said.
And with the median house price in Sydney more than $1 million, he said this would give them a sizeable pile of cash left over after buying a home further north.
“That is because there is such a big price difference between Brisbane and Sydney,” he said.
A PIPA survey from last year also rated Brisbane as the best capital city in which to invest, but in the past 12 months the average house price has increased by just 2.9 per cent.
Mr Koulizos said a boom would come eventually, but picking the exact point was tricky.
“Property booms take a long time to gather momentum, I doubt you will see double digit growth in Brisbane this year but it may be different next year,” he said.
Melbourne was the next best investment option according to the survey, with 19.23 per cent believing it was a good place to invest, followed by Perth at 15.38 per cent.
Originally published: brisbaneinvestor.com.au
The property clock strikes big for hot spot areas
9 Lion St, Ipswich. Picture: realestate.com.auSource:Supplied
DESPITE last month’s previous lacklustre values, analyst Michael Matusik has identified the areas on the upswing.
While property values remained fairly stagnant during February, property analyst Michael Matusik has revealed where the housing market is on the upswing.
Mr Matusik’s latest property clock for houses, has Brisbane, Gold Coast, Logan, Redlands, Sunshine Coast and Gympie all in upswing.
He said a market’s position on the property clock was based on the strength and direction of key indicators including sales numbers, price and rent, demand and how much new supply there was.
His latest Matusik Missive also listed Ipswich, the Fraser Coast and Noosa markets as heading into upswing territory.
Ipswich has many beautiful homes, often at prices well below what something similar would cost in Brisbane’s suburbs. A four-bedroom home at 9 Lion St,Ipswich is listed for $879,000.
The land the home sits on was bought in 1904 from the family of the then Ipswich Mayor Mr Pettigrew. A home was built on it in 1907.
The period home has 3.5m high ceilings, VJ walls, period window, and timber floorboards which have all been restored.
The home has two new bathrooms, a large separate dining area and study. It is listed through Steve Athanates of NGU Real Estate Ipswich.
On the Gold Coast at Robina, 196 Easthill Drive is listed for more than $850,000.
The three-bedroom home is within the Glades Golf Community.
It has formal and informal living and dining areas, and an outdoor entertainment area with a swimming pool nearby.
It is listed through Ian and Linda Mills of McGrath – Palm Beach.
On the Sunshine Coast at Noosaville a home at 15 Bluebell Court is listed for offers of more than $740,000.
The three-bedroom home is in a cul-de-sac in a residential pocket bordered by the Lake Doonella Reserve.
The single-level home has open plan living and dining areas. An outdoor area overlooks the pool and reserve at the rear of the property.
It is listed through Tansy Grant and Justin Sykes of Ray White – Noosa.
Originally published: brisbaneinvestor.com.au
Where to invest: These are the suburbs where house prices are tipped to grow
Annaliese Bullock, 27 with husband Jared, 27 and daughter Lyla 5 months sold their Burpengary before it even went on the market. Picture: AAP/ Megan Slade.Source:News Limited
THESE are the rising stars of Brisbane’s property market, the 27 growth suburbs investors need to know about.
INVESTORS chasing capital growth in Brisbane are spoiled for choice, with a new report identifying 27 suburbs where house prices are tipped to rise — and more than half of them have a median price of less than $500,000.
Property analyst Terry Ryder has identified the rising stars of the property market — where sales are rising steadily and house prices are set to follow. And they’re not the inner-city, blue chip suburbs you might expect.
The report examines sales activity, rather than prices, to determine the best and worst local government areas for property market growth.
The Moreton Bay region has 10 rising star suburbs where sales have been steadily increasing including Banksia Beach, Bellmere and Deception Bay.
Quarterly sales in Burpengary have risen from 69 to 97 in the past six quarters, while at Sandstone Point, sales are up from around 40 per quarter to 55 to 60.
Homes are selling so fast in the area that Jared and Annaliese Bullock just sold their four-bedroom house in Burpengary for $475,000 before they had a chance to even put it on the market.
Mrs Bullock said she contacted an agent at RE/MAX Ultimate, who brought through a couple of potential buyers and the offer was made within days.
But she’s not too surprised, given how close the suburb is to the train station, shops and the highway. The couple also recently bought two units as investment properties in nearby Caboolture. Acacia Ridge, Algester, Eight Mile Plains, Kuraby and Sunnybank Hills are also predicted growth areas.
“It’s the affordable, outer areas that have got the most activity at the moment,” Mr Ryder said.
“The infrastructure is pretty good, with train links to the centre of the city, and there’s lots of shopping centres and good amenities.”
“The sweet spot is to be about 200 metres from a school, a shopping centre and a train station.”
SUBURBS WHERE SALES ARE RISING
Acacia Ridge $402,000
Banksia Beach $550,000
Caboolture South $290,000
Deception Bay $345,000
Eight Mile Plains $788,000
Ferny Grove $595,000
Kippa Ring $415,000
Mt Warren Park $390
Sandstone Point $420,000
Sinnamon Park $720,000
Sunnybank Hills $660,000
Victoria Point $522,000
Originally published: www.news.com.au
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