IS the Australian property market about to collapse and the bubble burst?
Are our homes soon going to be worth 30 per cent or 50 per cent less than they are today?Well that depends on who you ask.
If you ask US based Jonathan Tepper, the founder of macroeconomic research group Variant Perception, it is not a matter of if, but when it will happen.
Mr Tepper predicted on the 60 Minutes television program on Sunday night that a drop in values of between 30 per cent and 50 per cent would hit the Australian property market.
But Australian property industry experts reckon he is way off the mark.
AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver has heard similar claims for the past 12 years and doesn’t put much faith in them.
“I am a bit amused,’’ he said
“I am not surprised that this story keeps getting wheeled out because it’s a good story in a way, there’s nothing better than a good old fashioned scare to get people to take notice.
“In a way I think it is a bit of a joke, this sort of story has been wheeled out almost continuously now since 2002, 2003. We had a big run up in property prices then and it did become a bit bubbly around that time and of course various people were inclined to think that property could crash. Even at the time I thought there was a risk it could crash, because we had gone up 20 to 30 per cent. Then as the years rolled on I began to realise and I think most people in Australia realised, that the Australian property market is a lot more complex and a lot more stable than people give it credit for and the reason prices don’t crash is because we don’t have an oversupply like America did at the time of the GFC.’’
Terry Ryder of Hotspotting said the claims were just regurgitating a very old story.
“I am acutely aware of it, because I did a research exercise towards the end of last year and what had been in media since year 2000 about real estate and what the outcomes were and found that those sorts of claims that the market was going to collapse and values were going to fall “x” per cent have just been a constant part of the media landscape for the last 15 or more years and none of them have come true and are very unlikely to.’’
He said such predictions were just ludicrous.
“Even the worst basketcase economies in the world post GFC have never had the sort of price collapses which have been predicted for Australia, we just don’t have those conditions.’’
He said while there would be small pockets or regional towns such as Moranbah in Queensland where values had dropped substantially, that was as a result of a set of circumstances exclusive to those towns and would not have the same affect across the country.
Mr Ryder said Australia had a very heavily regulated lending sector and lenders were extremely cautious, particularly since the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) had tightened up lending conditions even more in the past year.
“You do have to jump through a lot of hoops to get a loan in this country,’’ he said.
Real estate expert Andrew Winter said commentators who expressed this kind of “drama” about the market were forgetting what the commodity was.
“This commodity is property, residential property and that is where all the calculations fail.
“For the simple reason is we can live without gold, we can even now live without oil, we can live without stocks and shares, we can live without just about everything now, but we can’t live without somewhere to live.
“There is this whole crowd of people who love to give the property market a hard time as it if it is a bad boy for making people money.
“The problem I have with that is if it didn’t as a nation we would be stuffed and so would a lot of other countries too.
“We have used it for the last century to backup our finances and now that is not just the big rich kids, the people with lots of properties, that’s your normal mum and dad.’’
“For someone to say it is going to go down 30 to 50 per cent and not say just in a mining town or just in a regional coastal area that had a penthouse released for $2m and they have all gone down 50 per cent or whatever, your general house in New South Wales and your general house in Queensland is going to drop 50 per cent, is not only just a headline grabbing thing, it is actually really dangerous.’’
Original Publish: http://www.couriermail.com.au/
Sydney Baby Boomers drive real estate boom in Brisbane
A MIGRATION of cashed-up Baby Boomers from Sydney will lead to a real estate boom in Brisbane, according to property investment experts.
A Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA) members’ survey revealed that Brisbane was regarded as the best capital city for property investment.
Of the members who participated in the survey, 46.15 per cent rated Brisbane as the best capital for investment prospects in 2018.
PIPA chairman Peter Koulizos said the Queensland capital was expected to boom as a side effect of the Sydney property boom happening when Baby Boomers were looking at retiring.
“People that have a lot of equity in their home can retire or semi-retire by selling up and buying a home in southeast Queensland,” Mr Koulizos said.
And with the median house price in Sydney more than $1 million, he said this would give them a sizeable pile of cash left over after buying a home further north.
“That is because there is such a big price difference between Brisbane and Sydney,” he said.
A PIPA survey from last year also rated Brisbane as the best capital city in which to invest, but in the past 12 months the average house price has increased by just 2.9 per cent.
Mr Koulizos said a boom would come eventually, but picking the exact point was tricky.
“Property booms take a long time to gather momentum, I doubt you will see double digit growth in Brisbane this year but it may be different next year,” he said.
Melbourne was the next best investment option according to the survey, with 19.23 per cent believing it was a good place to invest, followed by Perth at 15.38 per cent.
Originally published: brisbaneinvestor.com.au
The property clock strikes big for hot spot areas
9 Lion St, Ipswich. Picture: realestate.com.auSource:Supplied
DESPITE last month’s previous lacklustre values, analyst Michael Matusik has identified the areas on the upswing.
While property values remained fairly stagnant during February, property analyst Michael Matusik has revealed where the housing market is on the upswing.
Mr Matusik’s latest property clock for houses, has Brisbane, Gold Coast, Logan, Redlands, Sunshine Coast and Gympie all in upswing.
He said a market’s position on the property clock was based on the strength and direction of key indicators including sales numbers, price and rent, demand and how much new supply there was.
His latest Matusik Missive also listed Ipswich, the Fraser Coast and Noosa markets as heading into upswing territory.
Ipswich has many beautiful homes, often at prices well below what something similar would cost in Brisbane’s suburbs. A four-bedroom home at 9 Lion St,Ipswich is listed for $879,000.
The land the home sits on was bought in 1904 from the family of the then Ipswich Mayor Mr Pettigrew. A home was built on it in 1907.
The period home has 3.5m high ceilings, VJ walls, period window, and timber floorboards which have all been restored.
The home has two new bathrooms, a large separate dining area and study. It is listed through Steve Athanates of NGU Real Estate Ipswich.
On the Gold Coast at Robina, 196 Easthill Drive is listed for more than $850,000.
The three-bedroom home is within the Glades Golf Community.
It has formal and informal living and dining areas, and an outdoor entertainment area with a swimming pool nearby.
It is listed through Ian and Linda Mills of McGrath – Palm Beach.
On the Sunshine Coast at Noosaville a home at 15 Bluebell Court is listed for offers of more than $740,000.
The three-bedroom home is in a cul-de-sac in a residential pocket bordered by the Lake Doonella Reserve.
The single-level home has open plan living and dining areas. An outdoor area overlooks the pool and reserve at the rear of the property.
It is listed through Tansy Grant and Justin Sykes of Ray White – Noosa.
Originally published: brisbaneinvestor.com.au
Where to invest: These are the suburbs where house prices are tipped to grow
Annaliese Bullock, 27 with husband Jared, 27 and daughter Lyla 5 months sold their Burpengary before it even went on the market. Picture: AAP/ Megan Slade.Source:News Limited
THESE are the rising stars of Brisbane’s property market, the 27 growth suburbs investors need to know about.
INVESTORS chasing capital growth in Brisbane are spoiled for choice, with a new report identifying 27 suburbs where house prices are tipped to rise — and more than half of them have a median price of less than $500,000.
Property analyst Terry Ryder has identified the rising stars of the property market — where sales are rising steadily and house prices are set to follow. And they’re not the inner-city, blue chip suburbs you might expect.
The report examines sales activity, rather than prices, to determine the best and worst local government areas for property market growth.
The Moreton Bay region has 10 rising star suburbs where sales have been steadily increasing including Banksia Beach, Bellmere and Deception Bay.
Quarterly sales in Burpengary have risen from 69 to 97 in the past six quarters, while at Sandstone Point, sales are up from around 40 per quarter to 55 to 60.
Homes are selling so fast in the area that Jared and Annaliese Bullock just sold their four-bedroom house in Burpengary for $475,000 before they had a chance to even put it on the market.
Mrs Bullock said she contacted an agent at RE/MAX Ultimate, who brought through a couple of potential buyers and the offer was made within days.
But she’s not too surprised, given how close the suburb is to the train station, shops and the highway. The couple also recently bought two units as investment properties in nearby Caboolture. Acacia Ridge, Algester, Eight Mile Plains, Kuraby and Sunnybank Hills are also predicted growth areas.
“It’s the affordable, outer areas that have got the most activity at the moment,” Mr Ryder said.
“The infrastructure is pretty good, with train links to the centre of the city, and there’s lots of shopping centres and good amenities.”
“The sweet spot is to be about 200 metres from a school, a shopping centre and a train station.”
SUBURBS WHERE SALES ARE RISING
Acacia Ridge $402,000
Banksia Beach $550,000
Caboolture South $290,000
Deception Bay $345,000
Eight Mile Plains $788,000
Ferny Grove $595,000
Kippa Ring $415,000
Mt Warren Park $390
Sandstone Point $420,000
Sinnamon Park $720,000
Sunnybank Hills $660,000
Victoria Point $522,000
Originally published: www.news.com.au
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