For those excited by the prospect of snagging a home for half price following predictions of a home loan crisis and a plunge in property values, don’t get your hopes up.
based researcher’s predictions that we will witness up to 50 per cent price drops across Australia are “outrageous” and “not going to happen”, according to leading economists.
In a 60 Minutes episode on Sunday, Jonathan Tepper, founder of macroeconomic research group Variant Perception, predicted a property market crash of 30 per cent to 50 per cent.
Mr Tepper expects property prices to plummet at similar rates seen in the US, Ireland and Spain as a result of huge mortgages on “overvalued” property in Australia.
AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said it’s nothing new to find people making claims of upcoming property prices crashes, but “unless we have a very severe recession or interest rates go sky high causing people to default, it’s not going to happen,” he said.
“They often make the claim that [Australia has] the highest household debt to income ratio, but if the figure is adjusted for the amount kept in offset accounts and for businesses … it’s at the same level as it was in 2007/2008,” he said.
“As we can see at the moment, the banks are telling us households aren’t having problems servicing their debt.”
While he said “everything is possible” and there is the chance fraudulent pay slips have been used by some brokers, the banking regulator APRA is serious on banking standards.
“If we had unemployment at much higher levels than 6 per cent, if we had mortgage rates at more than 10 per cent I would be much more worried,” Dr Oliver said.
“But I’ve seen all these claims before and there is an underlying resilience in the Australian housing market that sees it hold up,” he said.
Domain Group senior economist Andrew Wilson called the claims of a 50 per cent price drops in Australia’s capital cities “outrageous”.
“The clear characteristics of Australia’s capital city housing markets are orderly growth and correction phases, if anything we’re going to have a less volatile market in the future,” Dr Wilson said.
“Even in the deepest of recessions we haven’t seen [house prices drop 50 per cent], even in the 1990s with unemployment pushing over 10 per cent in some areas and high mortgage defaults, we saw a very modest change in house prices.”
Among all Australians, it’s typically under 5 per cent who are “highly leveraged” for their homes, with 96 per cent either owning their own home outright or paying less than 30 per cent of their incomes on repayments, he said.
“The logic doesn’t support any prospect of the type of house price drops being forecast by the doomsayers.”
HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham does not believe Australia has a housing bubble, saying high prices are “explained by the fundamentals of supply and demand”.
“Most of the loans are held by upper income earners and the housing debt is fairly well allocated,” Mr Bloxham said.
While the ramp up in investor activity seen in 2015 was “concerning for the Sydney and Melbourne markets” he said measures taken to restrain those risks appear to have been successful.
“In Ireland, the US and Spain house prices went up and credit was misallocated to households who couldn’t afford to service it, but there was also an oversupply of dwellings, which meant when the falls happened [it was exacerbated],” Bloxham said.
In most areas of Australia there is no oversupply of homes and, in the case of Sydney, it is “very undersupplied,” he said.
However, LF Economics’ Lindsay David agrees “100 per cent” with Mr Tepper’s view the national housing market is “a bubble just waiting to burst” with a mortgage crisis on the cards.
“By global standards our banks are lending what could only be described as toxic sums of debt to homebuyers that will never be repaid,” Mr David said.
“One only needs to walk into a bank or mortgage broker and have a five minute chat to realise they will lend to you a sum of debt you could never ascertain in other countries with no core evidence that you could ever repay the debt, particularly interest only loans, in a market downturn,” he said.
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Queensland is the next property hotspot, experts say
As New South Wales and Victoria continue to experience weakness. Queensland is expected to take the lead, a National Australia Bank (NAB) poll of property professionals revealed.
According to the survey, industry experts project house prices in Queensland to increase by 0.7% next year and 1.3% in two years.
Some areas seen to perform strongly over the next year include Brisbane, Cairns, the Gold Coast, and the Sunshine Coast. Out of the suburbs, Coomera and New Farm are expected to realize robust gains.
Meanwhile, Queensland’s rental market is also poised to enjoy an upward boost, growing by 1.3% next year and 1.9% in two years. This is despite the stricter rules on housing investment.
The respondents of the survey also expect Queensland to retain foreign buyer interest. In fact, the share of foreign sales hit a four-year high of 22.8% over the previous quarter.
The results of the survey go against NAB’s own projection of the market. For instance, the bank expects house prices to remain flat in Brisbane over the next three years. Unit prices, on the other hand, is seen to fall by 4.5% over the next year.
NAB chief economist Alan Oster said Brisbane’s housing market seemed to be going sideways and its unit market still creates concern.
“It hasn’t peaked yet, so that’s good. We’re seeing quite strong economic activity in Queensland, so that always helps,” Oster said, as quoted by The Courier-Mail.
Gold Coast house values record the biggest growth in Queensland
The Gold Coast has recorded the strongest growth in house prices in Queensland over the past 12 months.
GOLD Coast house prices are leading the way in Queensland, up six per cent in the past 12 months to an average $620,000.
The latest figures by the Real Estate Institute of Queensland show homes on the Glitter Strip are $35,000 more on the same time last year.
Unit prices are up 1.9 per cent to $428,000.
REIQ data reveals houses on the Glitter Strip are worth $35,000 on the same time last year.
REIQ’s Queensland Market Monitor for March said the strong population growth came on the back of infrastructure projects such as the $550 million Gold Coast Health and Knowledge Precinct and M1 upgrades.
“The property market has been one of the big winners from the sporting event as the $1.5 billion infrastructure investment has boosted confidence and demand for housing in the region,” the report stated.
“We expect house prices will show an upward path in 2018. However, this growth will most likely be more moderate.”
A quiet real estate period leading up to, and during, the Commonwealth Games likely contributed to a slight drop (-0.3 per cent) in the March quarterly median sales price, the report reveals.
Andrew Henderson says a growing population and employment opportunities were contributing to a strong property market. Picture: Jerad Williams
REIQ Gold Coast zone chairman Andrew Henderson said he expected interstate migration to continue to benefit the city.
“I expect the market to remain strong,” he said.
“There is a heavy amount of interstate buyers moving here.
“I was at an auction recently where the winning bidder was from Sydney and the underbidder was from Melbourne.”
Mr Henderson said growing employment opportunities were also attracting homebuyers to the city.
The Gold Coast property market is expected to remain strong.
“We have some of the best health facilities in the country and our universities are world recognised.
“Those two things alone complement the tourism industry and the lifestyle aspects that the Coast offers.”
The report found the fastest-selling suburbs on the Coast included Worongary, Merrimac, Highland Park, Mudgeeraba and Carrara.
It also revealed the rental vacancy held tight throughout the first quarter of the year at 1.1 per cent.
Andrew Bell says the Coast had evolved from a tourist town into a vibrant city with an expanding economy. Picture Mike Batterham
Ray White Surfers Paradise Group CEO Andrew Bell said the Games heralded the next chapter for the Coast, as it evolved from a tourist town into a vibrant city with an expanding economy.
“The city’s property market is riding the irreversible momentum that has now come to the Gold Coast in terms of economic diversity and with more employment options we will need more housing options for people,” Mr Bell said.
“We are no longer going to be subject to tourism upsides and downsides as we were in the past because our economy has well and truly diversified beyond just tourism.”
Australia’s golden triangle of opportunity
It was great to be back on the Gold Coast for the 21st annual Australasian Real Estate Conference (AREC), attended by over 4,000 of Australia’s best industry professionals. While I was there I was once again reminded of how much potential the South-East Queensland property market is offering both sea changers and investors at this stage in its market cycle.
In my view, Brisbane is the best market in Australia currently for short to medium term price growth, with the value gap between it and the other big East Coast capitals as large as I’ve seen it in many years.
When you factor in the key drivers for future growth – liveability, affordability, scale and future economic prospects, they all suggest that Brisbane is a market to invest in. Check out the latest statistics from CoreLogic below.
Value gap – median house prices
Value gap – median apartment prices
I’ve been bullish on Brisbane for many years and in hindsight, I called its next growth phase a couple of years too early. It’s had some growth in recent years but there is a lot more to come over the next few years.
According to McGrath’s top prestige agent in Brisbane, Alex Jordan, one of the dominant trends today is downsizers buying up luxury apartments.
Alex says: “Despite the reported oversupply in Brisbane’s inner city apartment market, we are seeing great strength in the prestige apartment sector.
“The luxury apartment market ($1M+) is driven by owner occupiers, particularly baby boomers and empty nesters, who are attracted to less maintenance and better accessibility.
“Popular suburbs include New Farm, Newstead, Teneriffe, Kangaroo Point, South Brisbane, St Lucia, Paddington and the Brisbane CBD. These areas offer a desirable lifestyle with an abundance of shopping, dining and entertaining precincts at their doorstep.”
South East Queensland has so many options for asset-rich, cash-poor southerners. Many of our customers in Sydney and Melbourne are looking closely at South East Queensland both for investment and a potential sea change. I believe its affordability will continue to attract record levels of interstate migration.
If you live in Sydney or Melbourne and you’re struggling with the mortgage and cost of living, Brisbane is a fantastic alternative. It offers big city job opportunities, high quality education options and the chance to transform your financial future.
The boom delivered Sydney and Melbourne home owners a capital gain of up to 75% – that’s enormous new equity that could be cashed in to fund an amazing new lifestyle with far less mortgage stress up north. Plus, you’d be buying in just before Brisbane’s next wave of price growth. It’s the perfect scenario.
I believe the area from the Gold Coast to Toowoomba and up to the Sunshine Coast is Australia’s golden triangle right now.
Toowoomba, with its expanded airport facilities which have opened up easy access to the south, is the perfect and affordable treechange destination. Known as Queensland’s Garden City, about 2,300 people moved here from Brisbane last year for its cheaper house prices and enjoyable regional city lifestyle.
Both the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast are also appealing sea change options benefitting from a raft of new infrastructure that will drive further population growth and generate more local jobs.
Brisbane is one of the world’s great cities but I don’t think this is fully realised as yet. If you haven’t been to Brisbane for a number of years, get on a plane. This is a thriving city that offers many of the lifestyle amenities you love about the southern capitals but at a much cheaper price.
I think Brisbane will also become very attractive to migration and investment from Asia in the years ahead.
South East Queensland is offering opportunity everywhere for both owner occupiers and investors alike. Now’s the time to consider what Australia’s premier lifestyle market can do for you!
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