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HOUSE price growth is set to slow nationally this year as low inflation, weak wages growth and oversupply worries in some cities put the brakes on recent rises.

And the popular claim that home prices double every 10 years has become a myth, as a News Corp Australia analysis shows that only Sydney delivered on that promise in the past decade and forecasters say no city will grow this much in the coming 10 years.

From 10 per cent-plus growth in 2016, most independent forecasters expect home prices to rise about 5 per cent nationally as the likelihood of another Reserve Bank interest rate cut diminishes and hot markets in Sydney and Melbourne start to cool.

“We are expecting slower growth, in the region of three to five per cent,” said CommSec chief economist Craig James.

“However, we had underestimated the demand that was out there in 2016. The Sydney market still remains quite buoyant,” he said.

Each city has its own property price cycle and different supply and demand issues. Sydney and Melbourne have boomed, Perth and Darwin dropped as the mining boom petered out, while other cities have been relatively flat.

“It’s basically been Sydney and Melbourne then daylight comes next,” Mr James said.

An analysis of Real Estate Institute of Australia data shows that Sydney’s house prices have surged exactly 100 per cent in the past decade, while its unit prices rose 95 per cent.

No other capital city saw prices double in the decade — Melbourne houses were next best (up 94 per cent), Darwin 57 per cent, Adelaide 51 per cent, Canberra 51 per cent, Brisbane 45 per cent, and Perth and Hobart 23 per cent.

Mr James said increasing supply — particularly in apartments in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne- should slow down price growth. “Across the country a lot of new buildings have been approved and are under construction. When wages are growing at 2.5 per cent it’s hard to sustain growth in home prices at these levels.”

Metropole Property Strategists CEO Michael Yardney said property markets would be fragmented in 2017 depending on local economic strength and supply and demand, with two-thirds of full time jobs likely to be created in Melbourne and Sydney to underpin continued outperformance there.

“The elephant in the room is the huge oversupply of new apartments being completed in Brisbane and Melbourne,” he said.

Most areas of Australia were unlikely to double in price over the next 10 years, Mr Yardney said.

“We’re now at a time of lower inflation, lower interest rates, lower economic growth and lower wages growth, so it’s likely we’ll have lower capital growth of property in the next decade,” he said.

However, some suburbs would outperform. “In the last five-year Census period, while overall wages growth in Australia was 20 per cent, some municipalities had 40 per cent wages growth. In general these were the gentrifying inner and middle ring suburbs where affluent owner occupiers with higher disposable income wanted to live and could afford to pay for the privilege of living there.”

Originally Published: http://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/

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Opinion

Queensland’s 100,000-property public housing shortfall revealed

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Queensland's 100,000-property public housing shortfall revealed

Queensland has a severe shortage of social and affordable housing, an issue that is projected to get worse by 2036 according to new research.

More than 102,000 additional social houses are currently needed across the state, and 54,700 affordable houses are also needed with nearly 13 per cent of Queenslanders spending more than 30 per cent of their income on rent.

By 2036, Queensland is projected to need 254,300 more social and affordable houses – the second-highest unmet need behind NSW, the report found.

The new figures come from a UNSW City Futures Research Centre report on social housing shortfall across Australia.

Regional social housing shortfalls are higher than in Brisbane, the data shows, but Brisbane residents are slightly more likely to be spending more of their income on rent.

Housing Minister Mick de Brenni said housing affordability was a “big issue” for Queensland.

“Through the Palaszczuk government’s $1.8 billion Queensland Housing Strategy, Labor is driving key reforms and targeted investment across the housing continuum,” he said.

“The Strategy commits us to build more than 1000 affordable homes for Queenslanders, as well as a further 4522 new social homes to help ensure everyone has a safe, secure and stable place to live.”

Lead researcher Laurence Troy said 22.5 per cent of Australia’s entire housing growth must go to social housing to meet demand into the future.

“Our analysis shows that the sheer number of households in rental stress across the country means that if we’re going to meet the need, at least 12 per cent of all our housing by 2036 will need to be social and affordable housing – which is a very reasonable ambition in global terms,” Mr Troy said.

“To cover the backlog of unmet need and future need in Australia two in 10 new homes will need to be for social housing over the next 20 years, and a further one in ten for below-market affordable rental housing.”

Mr Troy said the research’s financial modelling found the “best and cheapest way” for governments to meet the need for social housing was to fund it through upfront grants and low-interest government financing.

“Delivering below market rental housing through the not-for-profit sector, as opposed to the private equity model, will save $3 billion a year by removing developer mark-ups and shareholder returns,” he said.

The financial modelling was commissioned by the NSW community housing sector.

Mr de Brenni said the state government was “listening” through its recent public consultation on rental reform and was committed to investing in affordable housing in partnership with community housing, to provide more subsidied homes for low income earners.

“We heard Queenslanders are struggling to afford rental properties in the suburbs close to where they work,” he said.

“Through our Build-to-Rent pilot project, we are seeking to work with the private sector to increase the number of long-term, affordable rental properties for low to moderate income earners, including key workers in health, early childhood and hospitality.

“Internationally, the Build-to-Rent model is delivering fantastic outcomes and facilities for tenants and we’re looking to see what the market is open to delivering here.

“The pilot, if it proceeds, will see $70 million invested towards delivery of hundreds of affordable rental properties for key workers in inner-city areas where affordability has been identified.”

Mr de Brenni said the registrations of interest for that pilot had seen strong market interest, and the department was considering the responses before calling for expressions of interest.

Source: brisbaneinvestor.com.au

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Opinion

Moreton Bay region emerges as top performer in Brisbane market

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Moreton Bay region emerges as top performer in Brisbane market

While Brisbane has yet to see the property boom previously experienced by Sydney and Melbourne, experts said that some suburbs have been performing spectacularly. Find out how investors can capitalise on the Brisbane property market this 2019.

As the property markets of Sydney and Melbourne continue to decline, the stability in Brisbane comes as a welcome change for investors. investors start to flock into Brisbane hoping that the Queensland capital will follow in the footsteps of the two major markets.

Is it really a good time to buy properties in Brisbane right now?

According to Brisbane-based buyer’s agent Melinda Jennison, it depends largely on what the investor wants to buy.

The apartment and unit markets are generally thriving, with some softening expected through the year.

For example, in the apartment market, we are still seeing some of the oversupply being absorbed, which is good news moving forward. We do have a steady increase in population growth which is driven by both overseas migration and interstate migration, so we certainly haven’t seen the slump that was predicted.”

“However, we see some softening continuing in the unit market, perhaps for the next six to 12 months, and then we’ll see that steady out and increase into the future. Even the large research groups such as ABS have predicted slumps for 2019 but improvements in the years that follow.”

On the other hand, the house-and-land market has been fairly flat, with a few good performers across regions.

“In the single house and land market, we certainly don’t see the same. It’s been fairly flat across Brisbane if you’re looking at median values, but there’s certainly been pockets within Brisbane that are outperforming. The latest CoreLogic data in January actually showed Brisbane had four of the top 10 sub-regions.”

“These are markets with properties worth sub-$500,000, so it’s showing good promise,” Ms Jennison highlighted.

Opportunities in Moreton Bay

One of these top-performing regions in Brisbane is Moreton Bay, particularly the northern and southern sides, according to the buyer’s agent.

In fact, Moreton Bay has been deemed as one of the highest-growing shires across Australia, spurred largely by the high level of infrastructure spending across the area.

“There’s a new university being built at Petrie, for example. It’s a priority development area that’s been declared by the state government, and there’s a lot more infrastructure going in,” according to the buyer’s agent.

“A lot of the land has also recently been rezoned for higher density development. Further, there’s obviously different exit strategies that the investor can implement, particularly if they’re buying a site that has potential for future development.”

As South East Queensland benefit from the increasing level of interstate migration and population growth, Moreton Bay has secured a strong housing demand despite the increasing values of property across the region.

The new campus of the University of Sunshine Coast in Moreton is expected to improve the housing market conditions across The Mill at Moreton Bay, the new destination with the University at its core, and, ultimately, the entire Moreton Bay region.

Stage 1 of the campus, which be located adjacent to the Petrie railway station, is set to be completed in time for the first semester of 2020.

Ms Jennison said: “A lot of the area (The Mill at Moreton Bay) is actually flood-impacted land, so I guess it wasn’t ever earmarked for development, but the way they’ve developed the university around the non-flood impacted parts of the site, there’s a lot of ecological land that has been saved because it’s the squalor habitats that was associated with the sites.”

“With clever design, they’ve been able to design the University between Galangal and Petrie, and I think there’s going to be an exit from Dohles Rocks Road in Galangal—it flows through that whole area.”

At the end of the day, identifying a good investment area comes down to supply and demand, population and jobs growth as well good infrastructure, according to the buyer’s agent.

“In property investment, it comes down to supply and demand, but on top of that, it also comes down to having locations where people can secure good jobs, high-paying jobs.”

“We feel that Moreton Bay will gentrify quite quickly with young university students moving in, so we’ll see the types of accommodation gradually change over time to suit their preferences. There’s lots of opportunities within the area and the region as a whole because of this gentrification,” Ms Jennison highlighted.

Rezoning

Apart from noting the level of supply and demand as well as the existing and upcoming infrastructure, the buyer’s agent also encouraged investors to research any possible rezoning around the area as the zoning of land can significantly affect the investability of their properties.

In Moreton Bay, for instance, a lot of land throughout the major transport corridors have been rezoned around three years ago, meaning, the local council decided that the land be put to a different use.

“Where there existed single homes on single blocks of land, council rezoned that land for a higher and better use. It allows that land to be used for something more than just a single dwelling. It might just be a house at the moment, but in the future, it may be able to carry the capacity for 10 homes or units,” Ms Jennison explained.

Local councils often rezone land to help them plan for future growth, thus, rezoning usually happens around growth corridors or areas where the population and infrastructure spending has been rapidly increasing.

“Rezoning land allows developers to move in and build sufficient housing to accommodate the new demand that’s coming into the market.”

Whether the investor buys a property prior to rezoning to enjoy yield and some capital growth or they buy a block of land for multiple units after the rezoning for long-term growth as well as their exit strategies will be largely dependent on the investor’s personal goals, timelines and financial capabilities, according to Ms Jennison.

Source: www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au

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Opinion

Treasury: Negative Gearing Reforms Will Have ‘Little to No Effect’ on House Prices

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Treasury Negative Gearing Reforms Will Have ‘Little to No Effect’ House Prices

Federal Treasury has delivered a serious rebuke to the Coalition for exaggerating the impact of Labor’s negative gearing and capital gains changes.

In emails released under freedom of information, acting treasurer Kelly O’Dwyer requested the department fact check the Coalition’s claims that Labor’s policies would cause house prices to fall.

In response, Treasury issued a correction: “The [s]tatement is not consistent with our advice.”

“We did not say that the proposed policies ‘will’ reduce house prices,” the email reads.

“We said that they ‘could’ put downward pressure on house prices in the short-term depending on what else was going on in the market at the time.

“But in the long-term they were unlikely to have much impact.”

Labor has jumped on the release, with shadow treasurer Chris Bowen saying that the government had been “caught red-handed” misrepresenting Treasury’s advice.

For his part, treasurer Josh Frydenberg denied that the government was misrepresenting Treasury, pointing to the Financial Review’s take on the release that changes “could” put downward pressure on house prices in the short term.

Frydenberg quoted building industry group the Masters Builders Association figures.

“If Labor’s policy is in place you’ll see 32,000 fewer jobs and 42,000 fewer homes being built.”

Treasury Negative Gearing Reforms Will Have ‘Little to No Effect’ on House Prices

House prices hit spending

It has been a difficult week in economic policy, with GDP figures released on Wednesday revealing that the economy has slowed significantly, entering a “per capita recession” for the first time in 13 years.

Retail trade figures for the March quarter were also sluggish, with falling house prices impacting wealth and spending.

RBA governor Philip Lowe highlighted the link between the two at the AFR annual business summit on Wednesday.

“The evidence is that a tightening in credit supply has contributed to the slowdown in credit growth,” Lowe said.

“The main story, though, is one of reduced demand for credit, rather than reduced supply.

“When housing prices are falling, investors are less likely to enter the market and to borrow. So too are owner-occupiers for a while.”

Source: brisbaneinvestor.com.au

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